COIN for dummies
By: Lt-Gen (r) Asad Durrani
“One should see the whole before the parts” – Fredrick the Great
Indeed, one should. The problem is that faced with imminent threats, the whole was of no use. If the Taliban were all set to break out for Islamabad, the only part that mattered was whether they would take the motorway or come over the Margalla Hills. Some in that case would have ‘called-in the Marines’, or the Drones. We have neither, so we yelled for the army. Well it is there, once again; this time to root out this evil once and for all. A reasonable desire, but coming from us sounds a bit strange. After all, we are the ones who have been reminding all the rest that insurgencies could not be wiped out by force, and the B-52s were ill-suited to chase the likes of Osama and Omar. I have no idea what chance Fazlullah and Muslim Khan have to escape the crosswire of the F-16s, but the military action does provide us with yet another chance to find out how the “COIN” (counterinsurgency) works.
It is a miracle that it works at all. A bungling state, which was at the root of the problem to start with, is now supposed to make it work- and that against an adversary not only more committed to its cause but also with enough support to challenge the writ of the state. It sill muddles through, succeeding only when the insurgents run out of steam, or by learning on the job.
COIN follows the classic strategic cycle of “battle and manoeuvre”. Both the state and the insurgents battle against each other to create a favourable environment for the manoeuvre, which is essentially non-military. They may agree to hold fire to give “peace a chance” or because one of them needs a breather. Improving respective positions for the subsequent phase- fighting or talking remains a constant goal. The process continues till one side concedes defeat or both of them came to an arrangement that they can live with.
During the battle- aptly described as a form of asymmetrical warfare- insurgents have an advantage: they can merge with the masses and are usually more familiar with the area. The state on the other hand is constrained in the use of force to avoid collateral damage. The insurgents have no qualms about offering a truce from a position of weakness. The state even when in trouble is reluctant to lose face and digs itself deeper into the hole. The manoeuvre phase- often merely a “lull in the battle”- is again more skilfully used by the non-state actors. They can position their assets for the ensuing battle more discreetly.
What however harms the state’s ability to conduct a successful COIN the most is its propensity to seek truce, or battle, prematurely. Usually, it is because of public pressure; when the casualties start mounting, or if insurgents are seen to be taking undue advantage during the ceasefire.
The much maligned Nizam-e-Adl deal was struck because the military operation was taking too heavy a toll of civilian lives and property. As a stratagem it made plenty of sense, provided the state planned to reposition its assets for the battle that was inevitably to follow. The militants’ forays in neighbouring districts were imprudent, but panic in Islamabad was endemic. On a small-scale map, Buner looks uncomfortably close, and the hills in between, or the Indus, not very daunting. Goethe once famously said: “No one ever deceives you; you deceive yourself”. If alive, he would have said the same thing about “terrorism”. Having terrorised ourselves, we scrambled the army without adequate groundwork, civil and military.
Some aspects of this operation can be debated ad infinitum: could we have organised the evacuation of the population any better? Did we have the right intelligence to use heavy weapons against the Taliban? One can, however, safely assume that many of the militants would escape to fight another day, and at another place. COIN continues.
Would that make us act more patiently in future? Not very likely. If all the conventional wisdom could not prevent us from making waste in haste, some strategic claptrap had no chance. Moreover, who wants to wait for years and decades? What we need is a “Quickie COIN”. Let me try to evolve one.
Since we are pressed for time, we should cut the chase. “Whose war is this?” is a pointless debate. Those who have a war to fight do not fight over its “ownership”. I suggest we settle this matter after the war. If we win, it was ours. Otherwise, we will dump it on someone else.
Waiting for this government to come and lead the war, is equally futile. Wars are not led from bunkers that add a protective layer every time there is an explosion. The only wait worth its while is for the bunkers or this government to collapse under their own weight.
Moaning and groaning over the root-causes of the insurgency again would be in vain. Root-causes are embedded in history that cannot be rolled back. Those who created the mujahideen rolled back a superpower, which became history. Their successors, the Taliban, are in the process of doing the same to its opposite number. We have to take care of their sidekick, the “Pakistani Taliban”.
Now that we have decided to fight this war, we should not make any excuses. That ‘our army is not trained for an unconventional war’, is a pretty lame one. All armies are trained in conventional warfare and then adapt to the task at hand. No one trains for COIN and then awaits an insurgency.
And for God’s sake do not threaten the world that if it did not come to our rescue we would go down the tube and take it along. It is dangerous to put a gun on our head, especially if it fired nuclear shots. What if we were dared to pull the trigger? Invoking external help to fight an internal war in any case was never a good idea. Incidentally, the US has neither the sway nor the intent to arm-twist India to resolve Kashmir. So, do not hold your breath on that account.
Having shed all the extra baggage that was holding us back, we should now get on with the war, which would indeed involve a bit of manoeuvring and some battling. The manoeuvring first.
There are many wars raging in and around Pakistan. Let us try and contain or outsource some of them. Baluchistan is part of the “New Great Game”. While the external actors (and there are some big ones there) vie for influence, our spooks should know how to keep them engaged. The eastern front has been mercifully quiet the last few years. Don’t let another Mumbai hot it up.
Many of the militants in the Northwest could be persuaded to join their kith and kin in Afghanistan. Some are small time criminals who have acquired the Taliban label to raise their price (I believe we have handled them reasonably well). The rest, including the “rogue groups” (always to be expected in this game) have to be fought down, possibly piecemeal and in the right order. (Bajaur followed by Mohmand, and now Malakand.)
The real battle – and that has to be waged by us, the people of Pakistan – is to ‘check and rollback’ the insurgency (‘contain and counterattack’ in military idiom). A few months back, some citizens in Peshawar sent a message to the militants threatening to take over the city. It simply stated that this time around they would be faced with people’s power. It had the desired effect, but was not followed up by any solid steps. The locals response to the mosque carnage in Upper Dir again illustrates how best to deal with the insurgents. It can also serve another purpose.
Howard Zinn, an eminent historian of our time, had recently the following to say: “where progress has been made, wherever any kind of injustice has been overturned, it’s been because people acted as citizens, and not as politicians. They didn’t just moan. They worked, they acted, they organised, and they rioted if necessary to bring their situation to the attention of people in power”.
We needed no Zinn to tell us the virtues of a mobilised community. This is precisely what we have experienced during the last two years, reaffirmed by the Peshawaris and the Diris. Any community that can organise a system of civil defence has the best chance of deterring the next sneak attack by the Taliban and, with a little pluck, to drag this leadership from behind their fortresses on to the battlefield.
Lt-Gen (r) Asad Durrani
The writer is a former chief of the ISI
Email: asad.durrani@gmail.com
Loading ...
This is the best article I have read, clearly defines what needs to be done. Thank you General Sahib.
@nota
sorry like Colin Powell said b4 the invasion, if u break it u own it, USA can’t leave Iraq its thier mess they have to clean it up. Same way I disagree with IK and JI stand on finishing Operation right away. U know very well how much I opposed this operation, cuz I knew what will it bring and how incompetent our leadership is. Thats said it has started and have to finish it off to its logical conclusion. As fragile the situation in Pak, even a hint that Pak army can be defeateed or tamed will make the situation untenable. They hyenas and jackals have surrounded us any whiff of weakness and they will pounce. So thats why I agree with Gen. Durrani, and like I have mentioned b4, like it or not this has now become our war.
That said I am and will remain against the way the operation being conducted. But the solution is not to stop the operation midway, solution is to make it effective. As we can see in Lower Dir army backing the laskhar of local tribes and now splitting mehsud allies and using them against Mehsud.
@ Nota
The point is not that operation was the right strategy or not. Except for USA backed elites and the baboons we encounnters everywhere now in pak (serving USA’s interest), no sane person wanted the operation to start in the manner it starteed. The point am trying to make is once u have started it, it has to end to its logical conclusion i.e a position of strength where enemy is weakened and has been scattered. Ur right one cna’t kill all militants no matter what’s the cost. The idea is to weakened the enemy. Like it or not ppl who blast bombs in pak cities, using sucide bombings, no matter wats thier intention for me they have become enemy. They doing taht intentionally or out of geniune greviences is now irrelevant. Pakistanis are suffering from that not the elites, and that has to be taken care of and for that what may come they have to be crushed.
I used Collin Powell example in a sense, that no country should help USA fix the mess of Iraq, except USA and Iraqis themselves. They did it they have to fix it, why should USA forces walks out of Iraq so that they can save thier lives and money and reap the benefits through the illegal contracts they have signed with Iraqi govt? Wat abt war repartations? USA illegally invaded a soverign state, they should pay repartations to that country, since they won’t so guess what they should stay and try to fix wat they broke, Its thier problem not the world and thats why they should stay in Iraq till Iraqis themselves able to fix everything that is now broken.
@nota
actually Iraq had no arab country except Kuwaitis n KSA who allow thier bases. Canada sattyed out same as Germany. And no USA would not even think of repartations they levied them against Saddam for invasion of Kuwait but they are above that so they have to pay in other ways.
USA or for that anyone else wont help us so we have to help ourselves out. With USA launching offensive in near future they will push them back in Pak thats been the idea, make Pak the battle ground, so why not take out as many USA and co stooges or misguided groups who r waging operations against Pak.
Once again, the operation timing, way and logistics were all wrong and to major extent they still are but we cant stop cuz that will lower the moral of army and show weakness. As for ur qts abt leadership, well who will lead us? We only got these morons, so lets keep the pressure and try to work through them. Ppl will not vote JI or PTI. Frankly speaking I should say IK instead of PTI. Since ppl wont vote for real change guess we r stuck with wat we have. Abb aasman se qayadat to utarney se rahee lol.
I think u misinterpret what I and some saying abt now its our war. Not the so called war on terror or watever new name they have come up with, when I say our war I meant war against groups who are doing carnage in Pakistan. U bet its our war, and Mehsud and his ilks are enemies.
@NOTA
we all know all western intelligence agencies cooperate with each other, I tot u meant military presence. Canadian govt has not sent military in Iraq but thier intelligence officers were presents in the Iraq and some military personnel working with US Commands were in IRAQ as per part of duties. Officially ofcoz Canada opposed and didn’t particiapte in the Iraq War.
Do watch Khuwaja Saaad rafique clearly outlinning wat am trying to say in Capital Talk, june 17th, 2009
I read that article and that is my fear, thats why I was oppose to starting the operation. But we have a window of oppurtunity if we can exploit, the so called talibaan’s group doesn’t enjoy broad public support and as i suggested we an split and cut off the one’s whom we can’t talk with. This strategy of bombarding an’t gonna work, as I have mentioned b4 we need a change in tactics, but under no circumstances I can agree with you on point that military operation can be allowed to fail, the concequence of that would be too much.
I guess we agree to disagree, fundamental point it seems is that we both agree that operation shouldnt have launched and we differ now on when and how to end it.
P.s: can u make a lil small tutorial explaining wat all these html codes does, we need a new page showing contact information and tutorial on using hmtl codes and inserting pics and gravatar.
@nota & AfzaalKhan
I agree with nota, that just because a fatal step has been taken towards disaster, then we need to go to the end (literally). The question is what should be done from now on, if we really want to be on “Rah-e-rast”…genuinely?
- Stop the operation. No withdraw right away.
- Negotiate and settle the areas in secured portions and ensure that the area stays on “rah-e-rast” i.e. peaceful.
- Ensure that local corps and local leadership are both present and take care of unwanted elements right from the beginning. The sorry state we have is mainly because we let events unfold too far and too much before we do anything and that too on “request” of foreigners with little interest in well being of Pakistan. Off course the main source to silent the crowds should be peaceful. Violence should be avoided and especially in areas with civilians.
- Ensure development in these neglected areas. Integrate them fully into main stream Pakistan.
Could this (shortly described) be a workable solution?
I also agree with @nota about the excuse teh Yankees use to stay in Iraq. At best it is LAME. The Iraqis are better off if ALL the foreign invaders leaves RIGHT AWAY. The longer they are in the country the more devastation, theft, robbery and killing. So my message is “GO HOME YANKEE”!
1 – If we withdraw right away, then wat to happen of local laskhar that are helping army we r leaving them on mercy of inusrgents.
2 – Wat local corps. FC ran away and wasn`t able to fight the insurgents, don`t u remember FC being present when the body was dug up from garve and hanged for 3 days. Return them and withdraw the army and ill prepated FC will fall again, local leadership is sitting in isb and karachi except for JI leadership none of the locacl leadership is present do u think they will let JI run the show, specially after the crudest and the dumbest allegations that govt has levelled against JI recently hinting mansoora has been training the terrorist?
3 – Sunni Iraqis don’t want USA to leave Iraq neither do kurds, they will be overrun by Shia in the Iraq. Beside thats Iraq’s problem they have an elected govt and they can decide when they want USA to leave Iraq.
@Afzaalkhan
“1 – If we withdraw right away, then wat to happen of local laskhar that are helping army we r leaving them on mercy of inusrgents.”
I think you missed my first point. I wrote “- Stop the operation. No withdraw right away”.
“2 – Wat local corps. FC ran away and wasn`t able to fight the insurgents, don`t u remember FC being present when the body was dug up from garve and hanged for 3 days. Return them and withdraw the army and ill prepated FC will fall again, local leadership is sitting in isb and karachi except for JI leadership none of the locacl leadership is present do u think they will let JI run the show, specially after the crudest and the dumbest allegations that govt has levelled against JI recently hinting mansoora has been training the terrorist?”
I still believe that FC paired with local leaders can solve the issue, when the army leaves (Remember no withdraw right away).
“3 – Sunni Iraqis don’t want USA to leave Iraq neither do kurds, they will be overrun by Shia in the Iraq. Beside thats Iraq’s problem they have an elected govt and they can decide when they want USA to leave Iraq.”
This is exactly the excuse the Yankees are using to prolong the “visa” (given by themselves) to Iraq. Do you know about the Suez crisis and the excuse that the Misris cannot handle the Suez and the subsequent war? And now in Iraq. The shias will overrun here and there.
If the sunnis, kurds, shias etc. are given their due rights then NOTHING will happen. Something fishy, fishy WILL happen when you keep a certain group OUT. The anger will boil if not today then in XX years time. You can only postpone the problem NOT avoid it!
@nota
ppl ppower backed by military power. Once again the bombardment technique by jets and current military tactics I disagree with, but withdrawing completly without proper safeguards is suicide.
Regarding Iraqi sunni I have a coworker refugee from Iraq sunni who has family back home, now he might just be one voice but have met other sunni Iraq refugees and they want usa in there,, Kurds have never enjoyed such autonomy in Iraq since USA has come in and thats why they had allied with USA even b4 invasion begins.
Man we need midterm election and NS won’t freaking move without getting all assurances that he will be next PM. So I guess we r stuck.
Beside I dun think anything will change vis-a-vis operation, even if NS comes into power. But since we stuck btween current crop and NS. I would prefer NS in hope he will at least govern a lil better then current morons.
@afzaalkhan
“I would prefer NS in hope he will at least govern a lil better then current morons.”
I also used to think so, but by time I am convinced there is NO difference apart from rhetoric. I bet when/if PML-N is ion power then PPP will be saying all the right stuff. This is the way they want to cheat us
APDM jointly declared that they would not meet MQM individually. Until now both PML-N and especially PPP have both met MQM terrorists several times, and it goes on.
http://thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=81022
In other words there are no difference between PPP and PML. They are all thugs and thieves and can do nothing apart from ad-hoc and flip flop politics.
In any disease the treatment always has to be that of the cause of that disease.
The cause of this disease-( extremism-Talibanism-insurgency) is two fold-
1. The illegitimate Govt of the lilliputian general Musharraf which-( gained the support of the West thanks to 2001)- sold the country in 2001 and the policies that he followed.
2.the establishment of a well known crooked thief-(Zardari)- by the USA through a charade of elections to replace Musharraf and continue the same policies .
There is only one solution- remove the thieves and their friends.Put in place a Pakistan centered Govt in place. The question is HOW . Well the same people of Pakistan who forced the coming back of CJ Iftikhar can do this too
To replace one gutless theif (Zardari) with another
gutless thief ( Nawaz Shareef) is not going to solve anything . If this procedure is followed -it will obviously involve quite a bit of hard economic times for the people-( they are having softer times now ! thanks to the AID from the USA and others) but that is the only possible solution .
In regards to the article by the ISI General- after reading it I did not know exactly what he was saying.
Perhaps he should write poetry !
Regarding Iraq and Afghanistan- I see continued trouble ahead and I mean big trouble . So brace yourselves and get ready for roller coaster rides !
@shimatoree Pakistan cud not afford removing Zardari. This statement, coming from me, might surprise you. But we have a very dire situation. We don’t want to open a Sindh front!!! As it is we have too many of them.
The front that we need to open is in Held Kashmir on the one side and Kabul on the other side. I am sure you will be able to understand my reasons, probably better then me! There has to be a major surge in activity on both fronts.
Regarding TTP the Real Taliban have finally realised the damage being done to their reputation by this Falseflag OP. I am sure they will take care of BAitullah Mahsud in the next few days.
@shimatoree: Looks like someone is listening.
Third US soldier killed in Afghanistan in single day
Military and Security 6/20/2009 3:15:00 PM
KABUL, June 20 (KUNA) — A third soldier of the US-led coalition soldier was killed in an attack in Afghanistan on Saturday.
A spokesman for the US troops said the soldier died during an attack on a military convoy in eastern Afghanistan around 9:30 AM (local time).
Earlier, the US military declared that two US soldiers were killed in a roadside bomb blast in southern Afghanistan.
Another soldier from the multinational force, ISAF, was killed in a separate attack in the country. (end) gk.rk KUNA 201515 Jun 09NNNN
http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2008587&Language=en
Want a sixer NEXT. Come on TALIBS
why go through all the expanse and headache just join MQM, PPP or PML -N. JI use to have good squad not any more lol.
U dun need miltant group. Citizens all over Pak are giving beating and killing criminals if they catch them. When state fails to do her duty this is the result.
Will Govt now show some balls?
@nota
“evil empire… ”
Why not use their own term “Axis of evil”